Development of an early alert model for pandemic situations in Germany.

Publication date: Nov 27, 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic has pointed out the need for new technical approaches to increase the preparedness of healthcare systems. One important measure is to develop innovative early warning systems. Along those lines, we first compiled a corpus of relevant COVID-19 related symptoms with the help of a disease ontology, text mining and statistical analysis. Subsequently, we applied statistical and machine learning (ML) techniques to time series data of symptom related Google searches and tweets spanning the time period from March 2020 to June 2022. In conclusion, we found that a long-short-term memory (LSTM) jointly trained on COVID-19 symptoms related Google Trends and Twitter data was able to accurately forecast up-trends in classical surveillance data (confirmed cases and hospitalization rates) 14 days ahead. In both cases, F1 scores were above 98% and 97%, respectively, hence demonstrating the potential of using digital traces for building an early alert system for pandemics in Germany.

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Concepts Keywords
Germany Alert
Google Covid
Hospitalization Early
Innovative Germany
June Google
Increase
Pandemic
Pointed
Related
Situations
Statistical
Symptoms
Systems
Technical
Trends

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19 pandemic
disease VO time
disease IDO symptom
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease VO effective
disease VO USA
disease MESH dengue
disease IDO algorithm
disease MESH influenza
disease MESH infections
disease VO Gap
pathway KEGG Coronavirus disease
drug DRUGBANK Alpha-1-proteinase inhibitor
disease VO frequency
disease IDO process
disease VO volume
disease IDO host
disease VO Optaflu
disease VO effectiveness
drug DRUGBANK Potassium
drug DRUGBANK Gold
drug DRUGBANK Ranitidine
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
disease MESH pneumonia
disease MESH inflammation
drug DRUGBANK Esomeprazole
disease VO nose
disease MESH joint pain
disease MESH multiple organ failure
disease MESH Delirium
disease MESH death
disease MESH respiratory insufficiency
disease MESH shock
disease IDO infection
disease MESH education level
disease MESH infectious diseases
disease VO population
drug DRUGBANK Water
disease IDO infectivity
disease IDO country
disease MESH middle east respiratory syndrome
disease MESH neurodegenerative diseases
pathway REACTOME Neurodegenerative Diseases
disease VO Canada

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