Estimating subnational excess mortality in times of pandemic. An application to French départements in 2020.

Estimating subnational excess mortality in times of pandemic. An application to French départements in 2020.

Publication date: Jan 19, 2024

The COVID-19 pandemic’s uneven impact on subnational regions highlights the importance of understanding its local-level mortality impact. Vital statistics are available for an increasing number of countries for 2020, 2021, and 2022, facilitating the computation of subnational excess mortality and a more comprehensive assessment of its burden. However, this calculation faces two important methodological challenges: it requires appropriate mortality projection models; and small populations imply considerable, though commonly neglected, uncertainty in the estimates. We address both issues using a method to forecast mortality at the subnational level, which incorporates uncertainty in the computation of mortality measures. We illustrate our approach by examining French dcE9partements (NUTS 3 regions, or 95 geographical units), and produce sex-specific estimates for 2020. This approach is highly flexible, allowing one to estimate excess mortality during COVID-19 in most demographic scenarios and for past pandemics.

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Concepts Keywords
French Computation
Pandemic Covid
Sex Dpartements
Statistics Estimates
Estimating
Excess
French
Level
Mortality
Pandemic
Regions
Subnational
Uncertainty
Uneven

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19 pandemic
disease MESH uncertainty
drug DRUGBANK Cysteamine
disease IDO object
disease MESH death
disease VO time
disease MESH causes
disease IDO history
disease IDO process
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
drug DRUGBANK Gold
disease VO efficient
disease VO population
disease MESH shock
drug DRUGBANK L-Isoleucine
disease IDO country
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
disease MESH morbidity
drug DRUGBANK Fenamole
disease MESH premature mortality
disease MESH Infectious Disease
drug DRUGBANK Diethylstilbestrol

Original Article

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