Excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway 2020-2022.

Excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway 2020-2022.

Publication date: Jan 22, 2024

Causes of death other than COVID-19 seem to contribute significantly to the excess mortality observed during the 2020-2022 pandemic. In this study, we explore changes in non-COVID-19 causes of death in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to December 2022. We performed a population-based cross-sectional study on data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. All recorded deaths from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2022 were included. The main outcome measures were the number of deaths and age-standardised death rate (ASMR) per 100000 population from the major cause of death groups in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The predicted number of deaths and ASMRs were forecasted with a 95% prediction interval constructed from a general linear regression model based on the corresponding number of deaths and rates from the preceding ten prepandemic years (2010-2019). We also examined whether there were deviations from expected seasonality in the pandemic period based on prepandemic monthly data from 2010-2019. The cumulative number of deaths and ASMR were estimated based on monthly mortality data. There was significant excess mortality (number of deaths) in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (3. 7% and 14. 5%), for cardiovascular diseases (14. 3% and 22. 0%), and for malignant tumours in 2022 (3. 5%). In terms of ASMR, there was excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (2. 9% and 13. 7%), and for cardiovascular diseases (16. 0% and 25,8%). ASMR was higher than predicted in 2022 for malignant tumours (2. 3%). There were fewer deaths than predicted from respiratory diseases (except COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, and from dementia in 2021 and 2022. From March 2020 to December 2022, there were cumulatively 3754 (ASMR 83. 8) more non-COVID-19 deaths than predicted, of which 3453 (ASMR: 79. 6) were excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, 509 (ASMR 4. 0) from malignant tumours. Mortality was lower than predicted for respiratory diseases (-1889 (ASMR: -44. 3)), and dementia (-530 (ASMR -18. 5)). There was considerable excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway from March 2020 until December 2022, mainly due to excess cardiovascular deaths. For respiratory diseases and dementia, mortality was lower than predicted.

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Concepts Keywords
December Cause of death
Norway COVID-19
Pandemic Mortality
Register study


Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease MESH Causes of death
disease VO population
disease MESH death
drug DRUGBANK Pentaerythritol tetranitrate
disease VO monthly
disease MESH causes
disease MESH cardiovascular diseases
disease MESH respiratory diseases
disease MESH dementia
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
disease MESH infection
disease MESH cancer
drug DRUGBANK Etoperidone
disease VO time
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease VO age
disease VO vaccine
drug DRUGBANK Trestolone
disease VO Optaflu
disease IDO country
disease VO vaccination
disease VO USA
disease MESH influenza
disease MESH respiratory infections
disease MESH long term infection
disease MESH chronic diseases
disease MESH long COVID
disease MESH syndrome
disease MESH lifestyle factors
disease VO vaccinated
disease VO unvaccinated
disease MESH morbidity
drug DRUGBANK Tropicamide
disease VO Ssb
disease VO storage
disease VO organization
disease VO volume
disease VO Tat
disease MESH marital status
drug DRUGBANK L-Valine
drug DRUGBANK Filgrastim

Original Article

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