Impact of alternative Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh: A modeling study.

Publication date: Feb 23, 2024

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a major health concern in Bangladesh until very recently. Although the Bangladesh government has employed various infection control strategies, more targeted Non-Pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including school closure, mask-wearing, hand washing, and social distancing have gained special attention. Despite significant long-term adverse effects of school closures, authorities have opted to keep schools closed to curb the spread of COVID-19 infection. However, there is limited knowledge about the impact of reopening schools alongside other NPI measures on the course of the epidemic. In this study, we implemented a mathematical modeling framework developed by the CoMo Consortium to explore the impact of NPIs on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and deaths for Bangladesh. For robustness, the results of prediction models are then validated through model calibration with incidence and mortality data and using external sources. Hypothetical projections are made under alternative NPIs where we compare the impact of current NPIs with school closures versus enhanced NPIs with school openings. Results suggest that enhanced NPIs with schools opened may have lower COVID-19 related prevalence and deaths. This finding indicates that enhanced NPIs and school openings may mitigate the long-term negative impacts of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries. Potential shortcomings and ways to improve the research are also discussed.

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Concepts Keywords
Bangladesh Alternative
Models Bangladesh
Pandemic Closures
Pharmaceutical Covid
Reopening Enhanced


Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease MESH infection
disease VO Canada
disease IDO history
disease IDO process
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
drug DRUGBANK Spinosad
drug DRUGBANK Cysteamine
disease VO time
disease MESH death
disease VO Gap
disease VO vaccination
disease VO effective
disease VO population
disease IDO country
disease IDO intervention
disease IDO replication

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