Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte-Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues.

Publication date: Feb 23, 2024

The pandemic caused millions of deaths around the world and forced governments to take drastic measures to reduce the spread of Coronavirus. Understanding the impact of social distancing measures on urban mobility and the number of COVID-19 cases allows governments to change public policies according to the evolution of the pandemic and plan ahead. Given the increasing rates of vaccination worldwide, immunization data may also represent an important predictor of COVID-19 cases. This study investigates the impact of urban mobility and vaccination upon COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte, Brazil using Prophet and ARIMA models to predict future outcomes. The developed models generated projections fairly close to real numbers, and some inferences were drawn through experimentation. Brazil became the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic shortly after the first case was officially registered on February 25th, 2020. In response, several municipalities adopted lockdown (total or partial) measures to minimize the risk of new infections. Here, we propose prediction models which take into account mobility and vaccination data to predict new COVID-19 cases.

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Concepts Keywords
Brazil Account
Coronavirus Belo
Distancing Brazil
February Cases
Immunization Covid


Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease VO vaccination
disease VO immunization
disease MESH infections
disease MESH morbidity
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
disease VO population
disease IDO host
disease VO time
disease MESH social vulnerability
disease IDO infection
disease IDO history
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease VO vaccine
disease VO immunized
disease VO unimmunized
disease VO CoronaVac
disease VO dose
disease VO effective
disease VO vaccinated
disease IDO process
disease IDO algorithm
disease VO Optaflu
drug DRUGBANK Calusterone
drug DRUGBANK Tropicamide
disease VO effectiveness
disease MESH communicable diseases

Original Article

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