Predictive healthcare modeling for early pandemic assessment leveraging deep auto regressor neural prophet.

Publication date: Mar 04, 2024

In this paper, NeuralProphet (NP), an explainable hybrid modular framework, enhances the forecasting performance of pandemics by adding two neural network modules; auto-regressor (AR) and lagged-regressor (LR). An advanced deep auto-regressor neural network (Deep-AR-Net) model is employed to implement these two modules. The enhanced NP is optimized via AdamW and Huber loss function to perform multivariate multi-step forecasting contrast to Prophet. The models are validated with COVID-19 time-series datasets. The NP’s efficiency is studied component-wise for a long-term forecast for India and an overall reduction of 60. 36% and individually 34. 7% by AR-module, 53. 4% by LR-module in MASE compared to Prophet. The Deep-AR-Net model reduces the forecasting error of NP for all five countries, on average, by 49. 21% and 46. 07% for short-and-long-term, respectively. The visualizations confirm that forecasting curves are closer to the actual cases but significantly different from Prophet. Hence, it can develop a real-time decision-making system for highly infectious diseases.

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Concepts Keywords
Healthcare Auto-regressor network
Models Deep learning
Neuralprophet Lagged-regressor
Pandemic Neural prophet
Short-term forecasting


Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease VO time
disease VO efficiency
disease MESH infectious diseases
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH social problems
disease VO efficient
disease VO frequency
disease VO vaccine
disease MESH death
disease VO vaccination
disease VO USA
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
disease MESH tuberculosis
pathway KEGG Tuberculosis
drug DRUGBANK Flunarizine
disease VO effective
disease IDO algorithm
disease IDO country
drug DRUGBANK Icodextrin
disease IDO process
disease VO Optaflu
disease VO H1
drug DRUGBANK 5-amino-1 3 4-thiadiazole-2-thiol
disease VO effectiveness
drug DRUGBANK Trestolone
disease VO monthly
drug DRUGBANK Tropicamide
drug DRUGBANK Spinosad
disease MESH coinfection

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