Mathematical models of COVID-19 vaccination in high-income countries: A systematic review

Publication date: Mar 23, 2024

Objectives Since COVID-19 first emerged in 2019, mathematical models have been developed to predict transmission and provide insight into disease control strategies. A key research need now is for models to inform long-term vaccination policy. We aimed to review the variety of existing modelling methods, in order to identify gaps in the literature and highlight areas for future model development. Study design This study was a systematic review. Methods We searched PubMed, Embase and Scopus from 1 January 2019 to 6 February 2023 for peer-reviewed, English-language articles describing age-structured, dynamic, mathematical models of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination in high-income countries that include waning immunity or reinfection. We extracted details of the structure, features and approach of each model and combined them in a narrative synthesis. Results Of the 1109 articles screened, 47 were included. Most studies used deterministic, compartmental models set in Europe or North America that simulated a time horizon of 3.5 years or less. Common outcomes included cases, hospital utilisation and deaths. Only nine models included long COVID, costs, life-years or quality of life-related measures. Two studies explored the potential impact of new variants beyond Omicron. Conclusions This review demonstrates a need for long-term models that focus on outcome measures such as quality-adjusted life years, the population-level effects of long COVID and the cost-effectiveness of future policies — all of which are essential considerations in the planning of long-term vaccination strategies.

Concepts Keywords
Canadian Al
Healthcare Cited
Tna Covid
Deaths
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Internet
Modelling
Models
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Vaccina
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Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease VO vaccination
disease VO study design
disease MESH reinfection
disease VO time
disease MESH long COVID
disease IDO quality
disease VO population
disease VO effectiveness
disease MESH death
disease MESH morbidity
disease VO vaccine
drug DRUGBANK Ilex paraguariensis leaf
drug DRUGBANK Filgrastim
disease VO vaccinated
disease VO protocol
disease IDO host
drug DRUGBANK Fica
disease IDO process
drug DRUGBANK Huperzine B
disease MESH uncertainty
drug DRUGBANK Methionine
drug DRUGBANK Pentaerythritol tetranitrate
disease VO USA
disease IDO country
disease VO Canada
disease MESH comorbidity
drug DRUGBANK Ranitidine
disease VO report
disease VO dose
drug DRUGBANK Guanosine
disease VO age
disease VO volume
disease VO Optaflu

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