Publication date: Jul 22, 2024

Single stranded RNA viruses are primary causative agents for pandemics, causing extensive morbidity and mortality worldwide. A pivotal question in pandemic preparedness and therapeutic intervention is what are the specific mutations which are more likely to emerge during such global health crises? This study aims to identify markers for mutations with the highest probability of emergence in these pandemics, focusing on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, an essential and therapeutically significant viral protein, starting from sequence information from the onset of the pandemic until July 2022. Quite consistently, we observed that emerged mutations tended to demonstrate a high genetic score, which reflects high similarity of the type of codon required for translation between an amino acid and to the mutated one. Further, this pattern is also observed in therapeutically significant proteins of other ssRNA pandemic viruses, including influenza (HA, NA), spike proteins of Ebola, envelope of Dengue and Chikungunya. We propose that the genetic score serves as an initial indicator, preceding the actual impact of the mutation on viral fitness. Finally, we developed a comprehensive computational pipeline to further explore and predict the subsequent effects of mutations on viral fitness. We believe that our pipeline can narrow down and predict future mutations in therapeutically important viral proteins during a pandemic.

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Semantics

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