Publication date: Jul 26, 2024
Globally, there has been a commitment to produce and distribute a vaccine within 100 days of the next pandemic. This 100-day target will place pressure on countries to make swift decisions on how to optimise vaccine delivery. We used data from the COVID-19 pandemic to inform mathematical modelling of future pandemics in Indonesia for a wide range of pandemic characteristics. We explored the benefits of vaccination programs with different start dates, rollout capacity, and age-specific prioritisation within a year of the detection of a novel pathogen. Early vaccine availability, public uptake of vaccines, and capacity for consistent vaccine delivery were the key factors influencing vaccine benefit. Monitoring age-specific severity will be essential for optimising vaccine benefit. Our study complements existing pathogen-specific pandemic preparedness plans and contributes a tool for the rapid assessment of future threats in Indonesia and similar middle-income countries.
Open Access PDF
| Concepts | Keywords |
|---|---|
| 100days | 100-days mission |
| Indonesia | Disease X |
| Mathematical | Mathematical modelling |
| Swift | Novel pathogen |
| Vaccine | Pandemic preparedness |
| Vaccine allocation |
Semantics
| Type | Source | Name |
|---|---|---|
| disease | VO | vaccine |
| disease | IDO | pathogen |
| disease | MESH | COVID-19 pandemic |
| disease | VO | vaccination |