Publication date: Sep 30, 2024
This research proposes the Kavya-Manoharan Unit Exponentiated Half Logistic (KM-UEHL) distribution as a novel tool for epidemiological modeling of COVID-19 data. Specifically designed to analyze data constrained to the unit interval, the KM-UEHL distribution builds upon the unit exponentiated half logistic model, making it suitable for various data from COVID-19. The paper emphasizes the KM-UEHL distribution’s adaptability by examining its density and hazard rate functions. Its effectiveness is demonstrated in handling the diverse nature of COVID-19 data through these functions. Key characteristics like moments, quantile functions, stress-strength reliability, and entropy measures are also comprehensively investigated. Furthermore, the KM-UEHL distribution is employed for forecasting future COVID-19 data under a progressive Type-II censoring scheme, which acknowledges the time-dependent nature of data collection during outbreaks. The paper presents various methods for constructing prediction intervals for future-order statistics, including maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian inference (both point and interval estimates), and upper-order statistics approaches. The Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling procedures are combined to create the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations because it is mathematically difficult to acquire closed-form solutions for the posterior density function in the Bayesian framework. The theoretical developments are validated with numerical simulations, and the practical applicability of the KM-UEHL distribution is showcased using real-world COVID-19 datasets.
Concepts | Keywords |
---|---|
Epidemiological | 62F15 |
Future | 62N01 |
Markov | 62N05 |
Nature | Bayes prediction |
Statistics | COVID-19 datasets |
Kavya-Manoharan | |
Progressive type-II censoring | |
Statistical inference |
Semantics
Type | Source | Name |
---|---|---|
disease | MESH | COVID-19 |
disease | MESH | Long Covid |