Differential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Sociodemographic Groups in England: A Mathematical Model Framework

Publication date: Nov 09, 2024

The Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on the world, redefining how we work, respond to public health emergencies and control efforts, and sparking increased research efforts. In this study, we have developed a deterministic, ordinary differential equation multi-risk structured model of the disease outcomes, with a focus on the total number of infections, reported cases, hospitalised individuals, and deaths in the population. The model takes into account sociodemographic risk-structure and age structured dynamics, as well as time-sensitive nonpharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) to help observe the disease trajectory following the implementation of control measures. The primary focus of this study is to demonstrate the impact of different patterns of social mixing within and between deprivation deciles in England, to understand disparities in disease outcomes. Our analysis reveals that the diagonal kind of mixing, similar to “within-group homogenous” type of mixing assumption, results in a higher number of disease outcome compared to other types of mixing assumptions. We also explore the effectiveness of movement restriction (the first national lockdown) in controlling the spread of the virus in each social group, in order to understand how to target interventions in the future. Our analysis confirms significant disparities in infection outcomes between sociodemographic groups in England.

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Concepts Keywords
Coronavirus Decile
Disproportionately Deprivation
Mathematics Deprived
Policymakers Diagonal
Group
Groups
Individuals
Infection
Medrxiv
Mixing
November
Population
Preprint
Social
Sociodemographic

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19 Pandemic
pathway KEGG Coronavirus disease
disease MESH emergencies
disease MESH infections
disease IDO infection
disease MESH Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
disease MESH critically ill
drug DRUGBANK Imidacloprid
disease IDO intervention
disease IDO susceptibility
disease MESH death
drug DRUGBANK Pentaerythritol tetranitrate
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
drug DRUGBANK Albendazole
disease MESH reinfection
disease IDO infectivity
disease MESH infectious diseases
disease MESH secondary infections
pathway REACTOME Reproduction

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