Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia.

Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia.

Publication date: Dec 10, 2024

Despite a wealth of data from high-income countries, there is limited information on the distinct epidemiological patterns observed in diverse, densely populated regions within Latin America. This retrospective analysis of COVID-19’s four major waves in BogotcE1, Colombia, evaluates 1. 77 million cases in detail. A comprehensive suite of statistical methods was employed. Transmission dynamics were assessed by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number , while variant-specific transmission advantages were estimated using multinomial logistic regression models. Disease severity was assessed through a suite of indicators: Hospitalisation Case Ratio (HCR), intensive care unit case ratio (ICU-CR), case fatality ratio (CFR), hospitalisation fatality ratio (HFR), and ICU fatality ratio (ICU-FR). Additionally, we analysed the distribution of hospitalisations, ICU admissions, and fatalities by age group and wave. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture epidemiological delays-such as onset-to-death, hospitalisation, and ICU admission durations to estimate hospital and ICU stay durations. Our findings reveal substantial variation in , with peaks exceeding 2. 5 during the ancestral and Omicron waves. Over the course of the pandemic, we observed a 78% reduction in CFR, underscoring shifts in clinical severity. The third wave, associated with the Mu variant, recorded the highest case and death counts, alongside a decreased CFR, an elevated HFR, and a shift in the most affected age group towards younger populations. In contrast, the fourth wave, driven by the Omicron variant, exhibited the highest reproduction number and the lowest overall severity. This wave was characterised by a significant increase in pediatric hospitalisations. The study reveals a continued decline in the mean durations of hospital and ICU stays across the four waves, with hospital stays decreasing from 10. 84 to 7. 85 days and ICU stays dropping from 16. 2 to 12. 4 days. This study reveals significant shifts in transmission and severity metrics-including mortality, hospitalisation, and ICU rates and stays-across age groups during BogotcE1’s four COVID-19 waves. These insights underscore the value of retrospective analyses to understand the pandemic’s varied impact and inform public health strategies in diverse urban settings.

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Concepts Keywords
4days Colombia
Colombia COVID-19
Hospitalisation Delays
Pandemic Dynamics
Wealth Severity

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
disease MESH death
disease MESH emergencies
disease MESH tic
disease IDO country
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
drug DRUGBANK Ranitidine
disease IDO algorithm
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
drug DRUGBANK Corticorelin
drug DRUGBANK L-Valine
disease IDO symptom
drug DRUGBANK Stavudine
disease MESH infections
drug DRUGBANK Indoleacetic acid
disease IDO infection
disease MESH Influenza
drug DRUGBANK Allylestrenol
drug DRUGBANK Haloperidol
disease MESH coronavirus infections
disease MESH Pneumonia
disease MESH emerging infectious disease
disease IDO pathogen
disease IDO replication
disease MESH viral load
drug DRUGBANK Methyl isocyanate

Original Article

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