Publication date: Jan 17, 2025

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a detrimental impact on the healthcare system. Patients with kidney failure and related kidney disease are notably vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it remains unclear how mortality trends associated with kidney failure have evolved over the past three years. In this study, we investigated temporal trends in excess kidney failure-related mortality during the first three years of the pandemic in the United States. We aim to estimate time-varying excess kidney failure-related mortality, which is defined as the difference between observed mortality and expected mortality predicted by a Poisson log-linear regression model, in the United States (March 2020-March 2023). Our findings revealed two distinct peaks in excess kidney failure-related mortality during the first year (March 2020-February 2021) and the second year (February 2021-March 2022), whereas a notable decline in excess mortality was observed in the third year (March 2022-March 2023). Additionally, disparities in mortality were evident among various demographic groups, including age, sex, racial/ethnic subgroups, and geographic regions. Across all age subgroups, an increase in kidney failure-related mortalities was observed, with individuals aged 85 years and above experiencing the most substantial relative increase, reaching 9595. 8 per million persons (95% CI: 9438. 8, 9752. 9). Moreover, excess kidney failure-related mortalities were recorded at 510. 3 per million persons (95% CI: 502. 6, 517. 9) and 721. 8 per million persons (95% CI: 713. 4, 730. 1) for women and men, respectively. Notably, non-Hispanic Blacks exhibited the highest excess mortality within the racial/ethnic group, registering at 772. 6 per million persons (95% CI: 756. 3, 788. 9). Our study observed high levels of excess kidney failure-related mortality during the first two years of the pandemic, followed by a notable decline in the third year. This highlights the effectiveness of current policies and prevention measures implemented to mitigate the impact of the pandemic.

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