Vitamin D Deficiency Meets Hill’s Criteria for Causation in SARS-CoV-2 Susceptibility, Complications, and Mortality: A Systematic Review.

Publication date: Feb 06, 2025

Clinical trials consistently demonstrate an inverse correlation between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D; calcifediol] levels and the risk of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 disease, complications, and mortality. This systematic review (SR), guided by Bradford Hill’s causality criteria, analyzed 294 peer-reviewed manuscripts published between December 2019 and November 2024, focusing on plausibility, consistency, and biological gradient. Evidence confirms that cholecalciferol (D) and calcifediol significantly reduce symptomatic disease, complications, hospitalizations, and mortality, with optimal effects above 50 ng/mL. While vitamin D requires 3-4 days to act, calcifediol shows effects within 24 h. Among 329 trials, only 11 (3%) showed no benefit due to flawed designs. At USD 2/patient, D supplementation is far cheaper than hospitalization costs and more effective than standard interventions. This SR establishes a strong inverse relationship between 25(OH)D levels and SARS-CoV-2 vulnerability, meeting Hill’s criteria. Vitamin D and calcifediol reduce infections, complications, hospitalizations, and deaths by ~50%, outperforming all patented, FDA-approved COVID-19 therapies. With over 300 trials confirming these findings, waiting for further studies is unnecessary before incorporating them into clinical protocols. Health agencies and scientific societies must recognize the significance of these results and incorporate D and calcifediol for prophylaxis and early treatment protocols of SARS-CoV-2 and similar viral infections. Promoting safe sun exposure and adequate vitamin D supplementation within communities to maintain 25(OH)D levels above 40 ng/mL (therapeutic range: 40-80 ng/mL) strengthens immune systems, reduces hospitalizations and deaths, and significantly lowers healthcare costs. When serum 25(OH)D levels exceed 70 ng/mL, taking vitamin K (100 ug/day or 800 ug/week) alongside vitamin D helps direct any excess calcium to bones. The recommended vitamin D dosage (approximately 70 IU/kg of body weight for a non-obese adult) to maintain 25(OH)D levels between 50-100 ng/mL is safe and cost-effective for disease prevention, ensuring optimal health outcomes.

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Concepts Keywords
December 1,25(OH)2D
Hospitalization 25-hydroxyvitamin D
Viral 25(OH)D
Vitamin association
Calcifediol
Calcifediol
causality
Cholecalciferol
Cholecalciferol
COVID-19
COVID-19
COVID-19 Drug Treatment
Dietary Supplements
epidemiology
Hospitalization
Humans
micronutrients
public health
SARS-CoV-2
viral infections
Vitamin D
Vitamin D
Vitamin D Deficiency

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH Vitamin D Deficiency
disease IDO susceptibility
disease MESH Complications
drug DRUGBANK Calcifediol
disease MESH causality
drug DRUGBANK Flunarizine
drug DRUGBANK Cholecalciferol
drug DRUGBANK Vitamin D
disease MESH infections
disease MESH COVID-19
disease MESH viral infections
drug DRUGBANK Phylloquinone
drug DRUGBANK Calcium
disease MESH Vitamin Deficiency
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
drug DRUGBANK Medical air
disease MESH obesity
disease MESH metabolic syndrome
disease MESH sepsis
pathway REACTOME Immune System
disease MESH preterm birth
disease MESH Autoimmunity
disease MESH critically ill
disease MESH Cancer
disease MESH Cardiovascular Disease
disease IDO blood
disease MESH cardiovascular risk
disease MESH prediabetes
disease MESH heart failure
drug DRUGBANK Angiotensin II
disease MESH respiratory tract infections
disease IDO infection
disease MESH death
disease MESH reinfection
disease IDO assay
drug DRUGBANK Artesunate
drug DRUGBANK Guanosine
drug DRUGBANK ATP
disease MESH oxidative stress
disease MESH Chronic diseases
drug DRUGBANK Bismuth subgallate
disease MESH rheumatic diseases
disease MESH autoimmune diseases
disease MESH multiple sclerosis
disease IDO cell
disease MESH Epstein Barr virus infection
pathway REACTOME Antimicrobial peptides
disease MESH Zika virus infection
disease MESH Plasmodium infection
disease MESH dementia
disease IDO facility
disease MESH urinary tract infection
disease MESH tuberculosis
pathway KEGG Tuberculosis
pathway REACTOME Metabolism
drug DRUGBANK Diethylstilbestrol
drug DRUGBANK Phenylbutyric acid
disease MESH pulmonary tuberculosis
disease MESH syndrome
disease MESH inflammatory bowel disease
pathway KEGG Inflammatory bowel disease
disease MESH Kawasaki disease
disease MESH abnormalities
disease MESH mesothelioma
disease MESH periodontal disease
disease MESH seroconversion
disease MESH acute respiratory distress syndrome
disease MESH long COVID
disease MESH Myoclonus
disease MESH Seizure
disease MESH lung injury
disease IDO intervention
disease MESH pneumonia
disease MESH Stroke
drug DRUGBANK Magnesium
disease MESH chronic kidney disease
disease MESH Insulin Resistance
pathway KEGG Insulin resistance
disease MESH prostate cancer
pathway KEGG Prostate cancer
disease MESH pancreatic diseases
disease MESH Crohn’s disease
drug DRUGBANK Calcitriol
drug DRUGBANK Zinc
drug DRUGBANK Selenium
drug DRUGBANK (S)-Des-Me-Ampa
drug DRUGBANK Ivermectin
disease MESH Inflammation
drug DRUGBANK Rosiglitazone
disease IDO production
disease MESH colorectal cancer
pathway KEGG Colorectal cancer
drug DRUGBANK Pentaerythritol tetranitrate
disease MESH cholera
disease MESH Waterborne diseases
disease IDO contact tracing
disease MESH Violence
disease MESH scurvy
disease MESH pellagra
pathway REACTOME Vitamins
drug DRUGBANK Folic Acid
disease MESH neural tube defects
disease MESH rickets
disease MESH Morbidity

Original Article

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