Global, regional and national trends in incidence and mortality of pertussis from 1990 to 2021 and the comparison before and during COVID-19: A modelling analysis.

Publication date: Feb 12, 2025

Pertussis, a contagious respiratory disease, has seen a global decline in cases due to vaccination but has resurged because of waning immunity, with further impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to assess the disease burden of pertussis worldwide from 1990 to 2021. Using the GBD 2021, we extracted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and death rates (ASDR) of pertussis and analyzed the trends of them through calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2021. Besides, we compared the EAPCs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to explore the difference. Lastly, we investigated the association between age-standardized rates (ASR) and the socio-demographic index (SDI). From 1990-2021, the global ASIR and ASDR of pertussis witnessed an annual decline of 2. 57 % (95 %CI: 1. 91-3. 22 %) and 3. 20 % (2. 54-3. 85 %) on average, respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the ASR showed steep downward trends not only globally but also in diverse regions. Nevertheless, before the pandemic, Southern Sub-Sahara Africa witnessed upward trends in ASR, whose EAPCs were 0. 85 % (0. 67-1. 02 %) for ASIR and 0. 65 % (0. 41-0. 88 %) for ASDR. Additionally, a remarkable negative correlation was revealed between ASR and SDI (Regional level: r = -0. 843; r = -0. 885. National level: r = -0. 621; r = -0. 762. All P 

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Concepts Keywords
Africa Burden
Death GBD 2021
Vaccination Infectious diseases
Pertussis
Trends

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH pertussis
pathway KEGG Pertussis
disease MESH COVID-19
disease MESH death

Original Article

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