Metapopulations, the Inflationary Effect, and Consequences for Public Health.

Publication date: Mar 01, 2025

AbstractThe metapopulation concept offers significant explanatory power in ecology and evolutionary biology. Metapopulations, a set of spatially distributed populations linked by dispersal, and their community and ecosystem level analogs, metacommunity and meta-ecosystem models, tend to be more stable regionally than locally. This fact is largely attributable to the interplay of spatiotemporal heterogeneity and dispersal (the inflationary effect). We highlight this underappreciated (but essential) role of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in metapopulation biology, present a novel expression for quantifying and defining the inflationary effect, and provide a mechanistic interpretation of how it arises and impacts population growth and abundance. We illustrate the effect with examples from infectious disease dynamics, including the hypothesis that policy decisions made during the COVID-19 pandemic generated spatiotemporal heterogeneity that enhanced the spread of disease. We finish by noting how spatiotemporal heterogeneity generates emergent population processes at large scales across many topics in the history of ecology, as diverse as natural enemy-victim dynamics, species coexistence, and conservation biology. Embracing the complexity of spatiotemporal heterogeneity is vital for future research on the persistence of populations.

Concepts Keywords
Biology Animals
Covid asynchrony
Future COVID-19
Inflationary dispersal
Metacommunity Ecosystem
Humans
Models, Biological
persistence
Population Dynamics
Public Health
source-sink dynamics
spatiotemporal heterogeneity

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease IDO role
disease MESH infectious disease
pathway REACTOME Infectious disease
disease MESH COVID-19 pandemic
disease IDO history

Original Article

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