Publication date: May 26, 2025

Muscle wasting in critically ill patients, particularly those with prolonged hospitalization, poses a significant challenge to recovery and long-term outcomes. The aim of this study was to characterize long-term muscle wasting trajectories in ICU patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 and acute pancreatitis (AP), to evaluate correlations between muscle wasting and patient outcomes, and to identify clinically feasible thresholds that have the potential to enhance patient care strategies. A collective of 154 ICU patients (100 AP and 54 COVID-19 ARDS) with a minimum ICU stay of 10 days and at least three abdominal CT scans were retrospectively analyzed. AI-driven segmentation of CT scans quantified changes in psoas muscle area (PMA). A mixed model analysis was used to assess the correlation between mortality and muscle wasting, Cox regression was applied to identify potential predictors of survival. Muscle loss rates, survival thresholds and outcome correlations were assessed using Kaplan-Meier and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. Muscle loss in ICU patients was most pronounced in the first two weeks, peaking at -2. 42% and - 2. 39% psoas muscle area (PMA) loss per day in weeks 1 and 2, respectively, followed by a progressive decline. The median total PMA loss was 48. 3%, with significantly greater losses in non-survivors. Mixed model analysis confirmed correlation of muscle wasting with mortality. Cox regression identified visceral adipose tissue (VAT), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and muscle wasting as significant risk factors, while increased skeletal muscle area (SMA) was protective. ROC and Kaplan-Meier analyses showed strong correlations between PMA loss thresholds and survival, with daily loss > 4% predicting the worst survival (39. 7%). To our knowledge, This is the first study to highlight the substantial progression of muscle wasting in prolonged hospitalized ICU patients. The mortality-related thresholds for muscle wasting rates identified in this study may provide a basis for clinical risk stratification. Future research should validate these findings in larger cohorts and explore strategies to mitigate muscle loss. Not applicable.

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