Publication date: Jun 03, 2025

Low skeletal mass, often present at hospital admission, has been associated with poor prognoses. To explore the association between computed tomography (CT)-derived skeletal muscle mass at the lumbar level and short- and long-term mortality in critically ill patients. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, we included studies on critically ill adults (≥ 18 years) hospitalized in intensive care units (ICU) that measured CT-derived skeletal muscle mass at the lumbar vertebral level within +/- 7 days of ICU admission. The primary outcome was mortality, categorized as short-term (including ICU, hospital, 28- and 30-day mortality) and long-term (> 30 days) mortality. MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched without date restrictions. Study screening was performed using Rayyan, data extraction was guided by a custom-designed tool, and quality assessment was performed using the JBI Cohort Study Checklist. A meta-analysis was conducted, focusing on studies that reported short- and long-term mortality among patients with preserved and reduced skeletal muscle. A prevalence meta-analysis was also performed for studies that reported the size of subgroups with low muscle mass. Out of 1248 unique records, 35 studies met the inclusion criteria, involving 9366 participants. The majority were retrospective, single-centre studies conducted on four continents and included heterogeneous populations such as patients with sepsis, COVID-19 and trauma. Sample sizes ranged from 36 to 939, with a wide age range, from 40 to 70 s, and a predominance of male patients (62%). Skeletal mass was most commonly reported as skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar vertebra. Studies reported mainly short-term mortality on day 28 or 30. Long-term mortality, measured at 90 days, 6 months, and 1 year, was evaluated in 11 studies. Meta-analyses revealed that low skeletal muscle mass area and index were significantly associated with increased risks of both short (OR = 2. 33, CI 1. 90-2. 87, I = 41. 39%)-and long-term mortality (OR = 2. 67, CI 1. 45-4. 92, I = 62. 24%). The overall prevalence of low muscle mass was 42% (CI 34-49%, I = 98. 2%). CT-assessed skeletal muscle mass at the lumbar level on admission to ICU is associated with both short- and long-term mortality. It may serve as a prognostic marker in critically ill patients. Standardized protocols for measuring and defining low skeletal muscle mass in this population are essential to improve comparability across studies.

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