Publication date: Jun 08, 2025

We aimed to determine whether the trend in the rate of drug-induced hospitalisations and deaths changed during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. Data comprised crude monthly rates (per 1,000,000 persons) of hospitalisations and deaths directly attributable to illicit drugs, prescription medicines, or medicines available without a prescription, nationally from 2011 to 2021. Observed rates during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) were compared with their counterfactual forecast in an ARIMA model, overall and disaggregated by sex, age and drug involved. Observed rates of drug-induced hospitalisation and death, overall and by sex, were not significantly different from the forecasted rates. The rates of drug-induced death among people aged 35-54 and 55+ years were lower than forecasted by 2. 1 [95% prediction interval = -3. 8, -0. 4] and 0. 7 [-1. 3, -0. 1] deaths per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively. The rates of drug-induced hospitalisation and death involving heroin were lower than forecasted by 1. 5 [-2. 4, -0. 7] and 1. 0 [-1. 3, -0. 6] per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively, as were those involving amphetamine-type stimulants by 12. 4 [-21. 4, -0. 8] and 0. 5 [-0. 7, -0. 2] per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively. The rate of cannabinoid-induced hospitalisations was higher than forecasted by 3. 8 [0. 8, 6. 8] hospitalisations per 1,000,000 persons per month. We found no evidence of an overall difference in the rate of drug-induced harms during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the forecasted trend. However, there were differences by drug involved, which may be explained by drug market disruptions and changes in drug use during the pandemic.

Semantics

Original Article