Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review.

Publication date: Jul 23, 2025

SARS-CoV-1 was the first documented coronavirus to cause an acute epidemic in humans and remains a priority pathogen owing to the risk of re-emergence. Robust estimates of key epidemiological parameters are essential to guide outbreak responses and inform mathematical models. Existing systematic reviews have been limited in scope, warranting a comprehensive and up-to-date review. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) transmission models and parameters characterising the transmission, evolution, natural history, severity, risk factors, and seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-1. Information was extracted using a custom database and quality assessment tool. We extracted data on 519 parameters, 243 risk factors, and 112 models from 289 papers. We found that SARS is characterised by high lethality (case-fatality ratio, 10.9%), transmissibility (R range, 1.1-4.59), and superspreading events (approximately 91% of SARS-CoV-1 infections can be attributed to 20% of individuals who were most infectious). Infection risk was the highest among health-care workers and close contacts of infected individuals. Severe disease and death were associated with age and existing comorbidities. The natural history of SARS was poorly characterised, except for the incubation and mean onset-to-hospitalisation delays. The extracted data were compiled into our associated R package, epireview, which can be updated to incorporate novel findings, thus providing a key resource for informing response to future coronavirus outbreaks. By making data accessible through an updatable database, we support rapid, evidence-informed responses to potential re-emergence of SARS-CoV-1 or related coronaviruses.

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Concepts Keywords
Coronaviruses Acute
Crd42023393345 Coronavirus
Hospitalisation Cov
Models Emergence
Systematic Extracted
Mathematical
Models
Parameters
Respiratory
Review
Risk
Sars
Severe
Syndrome
Systematic

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH Severe acute respiratory syndrome
disease IDO pathogen
disease IDO history
disease IDO quality
disease MESH infections
disease IDO infection
disease MESH death
disease MESH syndrome
drug DRUGBANK Methylphenidate
disease MESH COVID 19 pandemic
disease MESH respiratory infections
disease MESH pneumonia
disease IDO contact tracing
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH laboratory infections
drug DRUGBANK Serine
disease IDO intervention
disease IDO process
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
disease IDO symptom
disease IDO country
drug DRUGBANK Trestolone
disease MESH uncertainty
drug DRUGBANK Methionine
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
disease MESH secondary infections
disease MESH mutation rate
disease MESH comorbidity
drug DRUGBANK Indoleacetic acid
drug DRUGBANK Pentaerythritol tetranitrate
drug DRUGBANK L-Leucine
disease MESH influenza
drug DRUGBANK Carboxyamidotriazole
disease MESH community transmission
disease MESH infectious diseases
disease MESH Middle East respiratory syndrome
drug DRUGBANK L-Tyrosine
disease MESH emergency
drug DRUGBANK (S)-Des-Me-Ampa
disease MESH viral infections
disease MESH Lassa fever
disease MESH nosocomial infection
drug DRUGBANK Medical air
drug DRUGBANK Methyl isocyanate
drug DRUGBANK Guanosine
drug DRUGBANK Etoperidone
disease MESH emerging infectious disease
disease MESH Clinical progression
disease MESH viral load
disease IDO susceptibility
disease MESH Critically ill
drug DRUGBANK Tromethamine
pathway KEGG Viral replication

Original Article

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