Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States.

Publication date: Aug 01, 2025

Emergence of antigenically diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants may be correlated with temporal circulation patterns. We analyzed positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in the United States reported to a national, laboratory-based surveillance network and unique amino acid sequences of the S1 region of the spike protein reported to national genomic surveillance during October 2020-September 2024. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 dominant periodicities using a discrete Fourier transform, described S1 variation using the Simpson diversity index (SDI), and estimated Spearman cross-correlation coefficients between percentage change in SDI and percentage positivity. SARS-CoV-2 activity consistently peaked during July-September and December-February, and dominant periodicities were at weeks 52. 2 and 26. 1. Percentage positivity and percentage change in SDI were negatively correlated (ρ = -0. 30; p

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Concepts Keywords
Antigenically Antigenic Variation
February antigenic variation
July coronavirus
Spearman coronavirus disease
COVID-19
COVID-19
Humans
respiratory infections
SARS
SARS-CoV-2
SARS-CoV-2
Seasons
seasons
Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus
Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus
spike protein
spike protein, SARS-CoV-2
United States
United States
viruses
zoonoses

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease IDO protein
pathway KEGG Coronavirus disease
disease MESH respiratory infections
disease MESH zoonoses

Original Article

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