Publication date: Jul 29, 2025
The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with an increased risk of myocarditis. However, COVID-19 infection is also associated with complications. A Bayesian network (BN), informed by Australian and international data, was created to determine individual risks and benefits of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric. The risk of myocarditis between vaccine-associated, COVID-19 and background rates was compared, as well as secondary outcomes such as hospitalization, and MIS-C. At a population level, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and MIS-C cases prevented at differing transmission rates and vaccine coverage were analyzed. The model estimated that teenage males were 4. 47 times more likely to develop myocarditis from COVID-19 compared to the vaccine. Furthermore, the risk of hospitalizations and MIS-C were more likely in the unvaccinated cohort for all ages. The population level benefits of COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine at mitigating myocarditis are more nuanced, contingent on age, transmission rates and vaccination coverage.
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| Concepts | Keywords |
|---|---|
| Australian | Bayesian |
| Covid | Benefits |
| Males | Compared |
| Myocarditis | Covid |
| Vaccines | Mis |
| Myocarditis | |
| Network | |
| Paediatric | |
| Pfizer | |
| Population | |
| Rates | |
| Risk | |
| Vaccine | |
| Vaccines |
Semantics
| Type | Source | Name |
|---|---|---|
| disease | MESH | myocarditis |
| disease | MESH | COVID-19 |
| disease | MESH | infection |
| disease | MESH | complications |
| disease | MESH | Long Covid |
| disease | MESH | death |
| disease | MESH | syndrome |
| disease | MESH | emergency |
| disease | MESH | Infectious Diseases |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Coenzyme M |
| disease | MESH | Community Transmission |