A Bayesian network analysis of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric population.

Publication date: Jul 29, 2025

The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with an increased risk of myocarditis. However, COVID-19 infection is also associated with complications. A Bayesian network (BN), informed by Australian and international data, was created to determine individual risks and benefits of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric. The risk of myocarditis between vaccine-associated, COVID-19 and background rates was compared, as well as secondary outcomes such as hospitalization, and MIS-C. At a population level, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and MIS-C cases prevented at differing transmission rates and vaccine coverage were analyzed. The model estimated that teenage males were 4. 47 times more likely to develop myocarditis from COVID-19 compared to the vaccine. Furthermore, the risk of hospitalizations and MIS-C were more likely in the unvaccinated cohort for all ages. The population level benefits of COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine at mitigating myocarditis are more nuanced, contingent on age, transmission rates and vaccination coverage.

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Concepts Keywords
Australian Bayesian
Covid Benefits
Males Compared
Myocarditis Covid
Vaccines Mis
Myocarditis
Network
Paediatric
Pfizer
Population
Rates
Risk
Vaccine
Vaccines

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH myocarditis
disease MESH COVID-19
disease MESH infection
disease MESH complications
disease MESH Long Covid
disease MESH death
disease MESH syndrome
disease MESH emergency
disease MESH Infectious Diseases
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH Community Transmission

Original Article

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