The interplay of influenza and COVID-19 in Germany, January 2020 – December 2022: a study of competitive disease dynamics with quarantine measures and partial cross-immunity.

The interplay of influenza and COVID-19 in Germany, January 2020 – December 2022: a study of competitive disease dynamics with quarantine measures and partial cross-immunity.

Publication date: Sep 09, 2025

We study the dynamics of coexisting influenza and SARS-CoV-2 by adapting a well-established age-specific COVID-19 model to a multi-pathogen framework. Sensitivity analysis and adjustment of the model to real-world data are used to investigate the influence of age-related factors on disease dynamics. Our findings underscore the critical role that transmission rates play in shaping the spread of influenza and COVID-19. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the significant interaction between influenza and SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, particularly in scenarios with partial cross-immunity. This underscores the importance of comprehensive interventions that simultaneously target both pathogens to effectively control their spread in coexisting environments. Our results demonstrate the importance of age-structured models in capturing the dynamics of influenza and COVID-19, underscoring the importance of accounting for age structure. Notable disparities emerge in estimated transmission rates between single-pathogen and multi-pathogen models, shedding light on the complex interactions between pathogens and their impacts on disease transmission across different age groups.

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Concepts Keywords
Accounting Adolescent
Competitive Adult
Germany Age Factors
Influenza Age-stratified model
Aged
Child
Child, Preschool
Co-existence
Competition
COVID-19
COVID-19
Cross-immunity
Germany
Humans
Infant
Influenza
Influenza, Human
Middle Aged
Multi-pathogen
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Young Adult

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH influenza
disease MESH COVID-19
disease IDO pathogen
disease IDO role
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
disease MESH morbidity
disease MESH Infection
disease MESH Tuberculosis
pathway KEGG Tuberculosis
disease IDO host
disease IDO immune response
disease MESH co infection
disease MESH respiratory diseases
disease MESH respiratory infections
disease IDO susceptibility
drug DRUGBANK Indoleacetic acid
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH long COVID
disease MESH complications
disease MESH tic
disease MESH viral infections
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
disease MESH rare disease
drug DRUGBANK Naproxen
disease MESH uncertainty
disease MESH death
disease IDO susceptible population
drug DRUGBANK L-Valine
disease MESH infectious diseases
disease IDO intervention
disease IDO quality
drug DRUGBANK Iron
disease MESH common cold
drug DRUGBANK Carboxyamidotriazole
disease MESH pneumonia
disease MESH hepatitis
disease MESH AIDS
pathway KEGG Influenza A
disease IDO cell
drug DRUGBANK Guanosine
drug DRUGBANK Isosorbide Mononitrate

Original Article

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