Epidemiological trends and determinants of suicide in Iran with insights into the COVID-19 period, 1980-2021.

Publication date: Sep 15, 2025

Suicide is a significant global health issue, responsible for 759,028 deaths worldwide in 2019. In Iran, suicide rates have fluctuated significantly from 1980 to 2020, influenced by social, economic, and psychological factors. Adolescents and young adults, in particular, face high suicide rates related to financial problems and mental health disorders. This study aims to identify trends in suicide changes in Iran and the factors influencing them. A mixed-methods approach was employed, with data collected from reputable sources such as the Ministry of Health and non-governmental organizations. Analytical methods included statistical software (SPSS and R) using ARIMA modeling and Joinpoint regression to assess trends, as well as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to ensure data stationarity. The analysis revealed that from 1980 to 2021, suicide rates in Iran declined, although women generally had higher rates than men. The highest suicide rate was observed in the age group of 20-24 years. Time series models predict that suicide rates will increase in the next five years, influenced by factors such as economic crises and the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that despite an overall decline in suicide rates, certain groups remain at high risk. The predicted increase in suicide rates highlights the need for urgent interventions to address economic and psychological issues, as well as reduce the social stigma associated with mental health. A detailed analysis of data is crucial for developing effective preventive strategies to reduce suicide rates in Iran.

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