Publication date: Sep 23, 2025
Compared with high-risk-only vaccination, universal recommendations prevented about 11,000 more hospitalizations and 1,000 more deaths in those aged 65 years and older. Observed national patterns diverged in timing from projections. No recommendation, recommendation for high-risk groups only, or recommendation for all eligible individuals. Projections covered the United States population of 332 million with an estimated 58 million aged 65 years. Three vaccine recommendation strategies were tested. An immune escape rate is the annual reduction in protection against infection that occurs as new SARS-CoV-2 variants evolve. A marked summer 2024 wave was followed by a smaller peak in January 2025, while projections anticipated the heaviest burden from late December 2024 to mid January 2025. You’ll get an ad-free account as a thank-you. More information: Sara L. Loo et al, Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025, JAMA Network Open (2025). We rely on readers like you to keep independent science journalism alive.
| Concepts | Keywords |
|---|---|
| Harley | Covid |
| Hospitalization | Deaths |
| June | Escape |
| High | |
| Hospitalizations | |
| Immune | |
| Network | |
| Projections | |
| Public | |
| Recommendation | |
| Recommendations | |
| Risk | |
| Scenario | |
| Universal | |
| Vaccines |
Semantics
| Type | Source | Name |
|---|---|---|
| disease | MESH | COVID-19 |
| disease | IDO | process |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Huperzine B |
| disease | MESH | influenza |
| disease | MESH | infectious disease |
| pathway | REACTOME | Infectious disease |
| disease | MESH | infection |
| pathway | REACTOME | Release |