Vaccine protection against COVID-19 mortality in relation to time since last booster dose among nursing home residents in Sweden – A case-control study over 35 months.

Publication date: Dec 09, 2025

The implementation of COVID-19 vaccination among older persons at nursing homes has lowered the infection-associated mortality considerably, but emerging virus variants and decline in vaccine-induced immunity over time necessitate examination of future booster dosing strategies. The overall aim of this study was to assess vaccine protection against COVID-19 mortality in relation to time elapsed since the last booster dose. All older persons living in nursing homes in Sweden at any time point December 27th, 2020 – December 4th, 2023 were included. For each case (5256 COVID-19 and 85,745 all-cause deaths), up to 10 controls were sampled randomly from this population, matched with respect to birth year, sex and county. The matched case-control sets were analyzed for vaccination history with conditional logistic regression, with further adjustment for co-morbidties and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccination status (unvaccinated vs. vaccinated), ≥ 90 days since last vaccine dose, a co-morbidity score ≥ 2, and no previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were associated with death occurring within 30 days of a positive test. The odds ratio (OR) for COVID-19 death was 2. 4 (95 % confidende interval [CI] 1. 8-3. 2) when contrasting at least 365 days with less than 90 days since the last vaccine dose. Waning vaccine protection was observed already 90 days after the last vaccine dose among older people living in nursing homes. The reported ORs imply that more than one third of all COVID-19 deaths could in the investigated setting have been possible to prevent by more frequent vaccine boosting during 2022-2023.

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