The behavioural spillover effect: modelling behavioural interdependencies in multi-pathogen dynamics.

Publication date: Dec 31, 2026

During the recent pandemic, a rise in COVID-19 cases was followed by a decline in influenza. In the absence of cross-immunity, a potential explanation for the observed pattern is behavioural: non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) designed and promoted for one disease also reduce the spread of others. We study short-term and long-term dynamics of two pathogens where NPIs targeting one pathogen indirectly influence the spread of another – a phenomenon we term behavioural spillover. We examine how perceived risk of and response to one disease substantially alter the spread of other pathogens, revealing how waves of different pathogens emerge over time as a result of behavioural interdependencies and human response. Our analysis identifies the parameter space where two diseases simultaneously co-exist, and where shifts in prevalence occur. Our findings are consistent with observations from the COVID-19 pandemic, where NPIs contributed to significant declines in infections such as influenza, pneumonia, and Lyme disease.

Semantics

Original Article