Enhancing COVID-19 Forecasting Accuracy in Malaysia Using a Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Model With Exogenous Variables: A Time-Series Predictive Study.

Publication date: Jun 01, 2026

Accurate forecasting of COVID-19 cases is essential for effective public health planning and resource allocation. Traditional statistical and deep-learning models often fail to jointly capture linear dynamics, nonlinear patterns, and exogenous drivers of disease transmission. This study proposes a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM forecasting framework incorporating four exogenous variables-daily average temperature, rainfall, vaccination rate, and population density-at both the linear (ARIMAX) and nonlinear (LSTM residual) stages. Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Malaysia from January 4 to September 18, 2021 were analyzed. A dual-integration modeling strategy was implemented: an ARIMAX component modeled linear trends and exogenous effects (temperature, rainfall, vaccination rate, and population density), while a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network captured nonlinear residual structures. Four competing models were evaluated: standalone ARIMA, standalone LSTM, hybrid ARIMA-LSTM without exogenous variables, and the proposed hybrid ARIMAX-LSTM with exogenous variables. Performance was assessed using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R , with statistical comparison via the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. The proposed hybrid ARIMAX-LSTM model achieved superior predictive accuracy (RMSE = 948. 62; MAE = 769. 49; MAPE = 6. 61%; R  = 0. 7883), representing approximately 49% lower prediction error than baseline models (RMSE = 1801. 90-1857. 94). The model explained 78. 83% of variance compared with

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