Publication date: Jun 24, 2026
The 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine season introduced updated formulations targeting the LP. 8.1 lineage. This interim analysis assessed absolute vaccine effectiveness (aVE) of mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 on COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged ≥ 65 years. This retrospective study used linked electronic health record and administrative claims data through January 31, 2026. Adults ≥ 65 years who received the mRNA-1283 or BNT162b2 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine were matched to unvaccinated individuals. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to each vaccine’s matched cohorts to balance covariates. Each vaccine was evaluated independently against its own unvaccinated comparator group. aVE against COVID-19-related hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models; aVE = 100 cD7 (1 - hazard ratio). We identified 233,072 mRNA-1283 recipients and 422,610 BNT162b2 recipients ≥ 65 years. aVE (95% confidence interval [CI]) of mRNA-1283 against COVID-19-related hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 was 59. 3% (39. 0%, 72. 9%) and 42. 0% (35. 0%, 48. 3%) among adults ≥ 65 years and 66. 9% (45. 9%, 79. 8%) and 50. 2% (42. 1%, 57. 2%) in ≥ 75 years, respectively. The aVE (95% CI) of BNT162b2 against COVID-19-related hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 was 48. 3% (32. 4%, 60. 5%) and 41. 2% (36. 2%, 45. 8%) in ≥ 65 years and 45. 9% (26. 0%, 60. 4%) and 44. 0% (37. 8%, 49. 6%) in ≥ 75 years, respectively. This study provides the first real-world evidence that mRNA-1283 was associated with protection against COVID-19-related hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 among vulnerable older adults at highest risk of severe disease. These findings support mRNA-1283 as an important public health tool for reducing the continual burden of COVID-19 in this population.
Open Access PDF
| Concepts | Keywords |
|---|---|
| Disease | BNT162b2 |
| Models | COVID-19 |
| mRNA-1283 | |
| Older adults | |
| Vaccine effectiveness |
Semantics
| Type | Source | Name |
|---|---|---|
| disease | MESH | COVID-19 |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Isoxaflutole |
| disease | MESH | Long Covid |
| disease | MESH | Dis |
| disease | MESH | hos |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Coenzyme M |
| disease | MESH | death |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Trestolone |
| disease | MESH | included |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Cefradine |
| disease | MESH | CED |
| disease | MESH | as1 |
| disease | MESH | emergency |
| disease | MESH | plan |
| disease | MESH | asthma |
| pathway | KEGG | Asthma |
| disease | MESH | cancer |
| disease | MESH | cerebrovascular disease |
| disease | MESH | chronic kidney disease |
| disease | MESH | liver disease |
| disease | MESH | cystic fibrosis |
| disease | MESH | diabetes mellitus |
| disease | MESH | obesity |
| disease | MESH | tuberculosis |
| pathway | KEGG | Tuberculosis |
| disease | MESH | influenza |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Dimercaprol |
| disease | MESH | SMDs |
| disease | MESH | SMD |
| disease | MESH | HRs |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Methionine |
| disease | MESH | char |
| disease | MESH | ICD |
| disease | MESH | infection |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Ethionamide |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Ilex paraguariensis leaf |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Serine |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Indoleacetic acid |
| pathway | REACTOME | Reproduction |
| disease | MESH | hcp |