Diabetes Mortality in the Post-Pandemic Era: What Recent Global Burden of Disease Data Reveals About COVID-19’s Lasting Impact.

Publication date: Jun 02, 2026

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted diabetes care globally and created a complex bidirectional health crisis. Recent forecasting efforts using pre-pandemic data projected substantial increases in diabetes mortality through 2030, raising concerns about achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3. 4. However, these projections did not account for pandemic-related disruptions to health systems and chronic disease management. The newly released Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data, covering the pandemic period through 2023, now provide a comprehensive empirical reference for assessing COVID-19’s observed impact on diabetes trends. This perspective adopts a forecast reconciliation and interpretation approach by examining counterfactual pre-pandemic diabetes mortality projections alongside GBD 2023 data, thereby shedding light on how pandemic-era mortality diverged from pre-pandemic trajectories. Critically, we note that insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM, Type 1) and non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM, Type 2) have distinct etiologies and pandemic vulnerabilities, a distinction this article addresses. The evidence is striking: by 2023, global diabetes deaths had already exceeded 2. 0 million per year, surpassing the 2030 upper forecast bound of 1. 91 million, seven years ahead of the forecast horizon. NIDDM was the primary driver, with deaths crossing 1. 9 million per year in 2023. These findings underscore the urgent need to strengthen diabetes prevention and management strategies as the world recovers from the pandemic-era disruptions in health systems and chronic disease care.

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