Projected health and economic impact of PCV20 vaccination in UK children: a dynamic transmission model.

Publication date: Jul 01, 2026

Despite the significant impact of longstanding pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use in the United Kingdom (UK), pneumococcal disease burden remains substantial. Higher-valent vaccines such as the 20-valent PCV (PCV20) could reduce this burden, yet their value in the contemporary UK setting has not been fully assessed using recent data. An age-structured dynamic transmission model used post-COVID-19 UK epidemiology (2001-2023) to compare pediatric PCV20 (2 + 1 and 1 + 1) with PCV13 (1 + 1) and PCV15 (1 + 1). Over 10-years, we assessed cost-effectiveness and number needed to vaccinate (NNV), capturing disease cases, deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity and scenario analyses examined key uncertainties. Over 10 years, both PCV20 schedules were dominant versus PCV13 and PCV15. Versus PCV13, PCV20 1 + 1 and 2 + 1 were projected to avert 448,432 and 499,151 disease cases and save lb1. 509 and lb1. 306 billion, respectively. Versus PCV15, PCV20 1 + 1 and 2 + 1 were projected to avert 409,459 and 460,179 disease cases and save lb1. 424 and lb1. 221 billion, respectively. NNVs versus PCV13 were lower for PCV20 than PCV15 across both dosing schedules. Sensitivity and scenario results were consistent with the base-case. Pediatric PCV20 implementation in the UK could deliver substantial health gains while improving economic efficiency.

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Concepts Keywords
10years Disease transmission model
Expert economic impact
Pcv15 health impact
Vaccines national immunization program
PCV20
pneumococcal conjugate vaccine
pneumococcal disease

Semantics

Type Source Name
drug DRUGBANK Penciclovir
disease MESH pneumococcal disease
disease MESH COVID-19

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