The impact of expanded adolescent vaccination against COVID-19 depends on the epidemic status: a mathematical modelling study

Publication date: Aug 03, 2026

Background/Objectives We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 adolescent vaccination in England at two different epidemic points: the autumn (August-November) 2021, in the presence of a large Omicron epidemic wave, and the autumn (August-November) 2022, when the subsequent Omicron epidemic was at an endemic stage. Methods Using the Covasim SARS-CoV-2 model for England, under varying vaccine uptake and onset time, we evaluated the impact of a)vaccinating 18+ only versus additional 12+ vaccination from the autumn 2021; and b)the current immunisation strategy at the time versus additional 12+ vaccination from September 2022, projecting the number of new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalisations and deaths. Results In presence of the BA.1 Omicron wave in late 2021, the expanded adolescent vaccination averted ~3,000,000 cases across all-ages, ~1,010,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the period 2-6 months from vaccine onset in the vaccinated cohort. During the Omicron waves in 2022, additional adolescents vaccination did not significantly reduce the COVID-19 burden in the entire population, nor within the vaccinated cohort. Conclusions Our findings highlight that adolescent vaccination impact depends on the timing/speed of implementation, other present intervention strategies, and the status of the epidemic at the time and it should not be considered as a stand-alone immunisation strategy.

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Concepts Keywords
Adolescent
Adolescents
August
Booster
Covid
England
Epidemic
Infections
Omicron
Period
Population
Preprint
Uptake
Vaccination
Vaccine

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease MESH infections
disease MESH influenza
disease MESH death
disease MESH included
disease MESH Coronavirus Infection
drug DRUGBANK Tropicamide
disease MESH Myocarditis
drug DRUGBANK Ranitidine
disease MESH NHS
disease MESH emergency
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M

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